About

This Weblog is written by John B. Lounsbury, Ph.D, CFP.  John is a financial planner and investment advisor in Clayton, NC.

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28 Responses to “About”

  1. Mike Caggeso Says:

    Hello John,

    Thank you very much for posting Money Morning’s material over the past few weeks. Money Morning is free daily newsletter dedicated to global investment news, advice and analysis. Our worldwide research staff includes former investment bankers, international financers, emerging markets specialists and veteran financial journalists.

    If you don’t mind, we’d like to add your e-mail to our contact list to receive our weekly global investment news feed. Coming tomorrow, we’re writing an article about which Democratic candidate – Hillary or Obama – would most benefit investors.

    Or if you want to sign up for our daily news blast of global news and investment advice/analysis (sure to provide tons of content for you), you can sign up on our home page… http://www.moneymorning.com. All we ask if that you link back to us and attribute to Money Morning, as you have already.

    Thanks again!

    Feel free to contact me if you need anything. Have a great day!

    Mike Caggeso
    Editor, Money Morning
    410-223-2658
    mcaggeso@oxfordclub.com

  2. Jason Rines (iThinkBig) Says:

    (please forward to John)

    Hi John,

    This is a good blog. I enjoy your articles and comments on Seeking Alpha. I would request becoming an editor for you blog and vice-versa. We should also chat on the phone sometime. Those of us left with integrity, common sense and balls are going to need to step up and clean up the mess. Let’s get to know each other.

    Regards,

    Jason Rines
    CEO
    Raging Debate.com, LocalSchools.com, PrimeHealthsolutions.com
    603-749-5511 x 107

  3. Calvin Oh Says:

    Dear Mr. Lounsbury,

    I came across your articles on Seeking Alpha and hence ended up on your blog site through the links. I’ve been trying, with little success to find your contact info. I am interested in posting your articles to http://www.gold-speculator.com. Please visit the site and if you find it agreeable, contact me. I think you produce great insights which would benefit our readers. Thanks for your time.

    Calvin Oh, editor for Gold-Speculator.com

  4. ilenne Says:

    John – do you have an email address? or could you send me it at ilene@philstockworld.com

  5. Mike Swanson Says:

    I’ve been following your aticles on seekingalpha for sometime now and am interested in working with you.

    My name is Mike Swanson. Maybe you have heard of me?

    I’ve been a professional trader for over ten years and also run the successful financial site WallStreetWindow.com. In January I did a subscriptiom sales launch and cleared over $150,000 in less than 12 hours. My site is in the top 50,000 currently on quantcast. I get over 100,000 visits a month.

    I just setup a new private site for stock market bloggers, writers, and analysts geared towards helping each other and possibly building partnerships and sharing campaign results.

    I’m going to share some of the marketing tactics I’ve used to grow my site and ways I’ve monetized my traffic.

    My goal is to build a network of bloggers to help each other make more money, grow our traffic, and just work together. Seekingalpha shows there is power in working together. Now I want to do that in a behind the scenes type way and want you to be a part of this.

    To join just go to:

    http://www.theprivatealliance.com/

    -Mike Swanson

  6. David Ristau Says:

    Hello Mr. Lounsbury,

    The Oxen Group is very impressed with your blog entires and would like to know if you would have any interest in featuring them on our site, http://www.theoxengroup.com, for syndication.

    We are a young, growing financial information website centered around the idea of striving to provide the most comprehensive financial experience for our readers and visitors. For the past four months, we have seen our visitors increase by nearly 100% each month, and we are on track for May to hit 7,000 – 8,000 visitors. In addition to the website viewing audience, we also have a daily newsletter that has a viewing base, currently, of over 1,000 readers.

    So, what is in it for you? The Oxen Group would feature your articles on their own webpage with links back to your site and the original article page. You would have your own bio page that can talk about your site and financial focus. It would give your site great exposure and allow you to see more traffic to your webpage.

    Would this be something you are interested in?

    Let me know,

    David Ristau

    President and Founder of The Oxen Group

  7. David Schere Says:

    Hi John,

    I came across your article “Can the Coming Mortgage Reset Bubble Be Absorbed? ” in seeking alpha. I was wandering what kind of impact an interest rate spike would have to this mess. I would imagine it would be quite bad. Given the magnitude of this problem do you think that the FED would have to become a negative stakeholder in the stock market in order to drive money out of the equity markets to shore up bonds and dollar so that interest rates stay benign over the next 18 months. I can see that through the eyes of the FED the rally on wall street is creating a surge in bond yields and this is a threat to government financing as well as a source of aggravation of this alt-a and opt ARM problem.

    • piedmonthudson Says:

      David – – –

      What do you mean when you say the Fed might become a negative participant in th stock market? Would the Fed engage in short-selling? I don’t know if that is something that has ever happened. If it has, it has been covert action. I haven’t thought through all the possible ramifications, but, at first glance, I don’t think it is a good thing. I think it is a long-term money losing proposition for the government. If they succeed in driving down the stock market, I think the negatives for the economy outweigh any short-term advantage obtained by holding bonds at high prices (interest rates low).

      I must give this idea some time to gestate before I would want to comment further.

  8. Ed Hynes Says:

    Hello:

    If you want the prospectuses from the recently pulled offering, I can e-mail them. There might be some changes, but probably not very much.

    BTW the Trust terminates if the CS index moves more that 33.3% and stays outside that range for three consecutive months.

    Cheers,

    Ed Hynes, CFA

  9. Forexmoivy Says:

    Hi there, I must say that you have done a wonderful job on your site and I thoroughly enjoyed my stay here, I thank you for sharing it with me

  10. Ted Spradley Says:

    Mr. Lounsbury,

    I just read your article on theStreet.com, ‘Enter the Zero-Energy House’. I noted that your studies at University of Vermont, Columbia University and the Illinois Institute of Technology included chemistry, physics and mathematics, so that lead me to pose a question/suggestion for future consideration.

    The generally accepted definition of a ‘zero-energy house is one with a net energy consumption of zero’ while accurate, seems to me a bit misleading to those that have not had the benefit of analytical training and could lead to the perception that a zero-energy home has a net energy consumption of zero, making the owner/builder etc. feel good about this type of structure. Being zero energy, these structures are good for the environment, right? Producing excess energy during daylight or sufficient wind conditions, buying from the grid when those conditions are not true, for a net across the electric meter of zero KWh used.

    My question/suggestion is this: Please address the details of ‘spinning reserve’ necessary to support an electric customer that purchases electric power from a utility. My foggy recollection of rudimentary gas and steam turbine power plant design from engineering school is that first, turbines take days to spool up and down, and that even during maintenance the shafts are kept spinning at a very slow rpm to prevent weight from warping the shaft. Second, it seems that we had to size capacity for peak power demand.

    The net effect of these two design requirements is that even when a customer is not buying power, the plant must keep the turbine spinning and consuming fuel as if the customer were consuming power. That allows power to be available when the customer ‘flips the switch’.

    The consumer that purchases or converts a home to be a ‘Net Zero Home’, if tied to a grid that has electric power produced by the combustion of fossil fuels, then also has a ‘Net Zero’ reduction in their carbon footprint. In other words, if a power consuming structure is tied to the grid, they exist as a component of peak power demand so the reduction in carbon footprint is minimal.

    You mentioned energy storage at the end of the article, which in my opinion is the area of greatest importance, for without it, the impact of the other energy saving efforts are minimal.

    Another related but potentially more important topic would be the relation of building climate control and the Second Law of Thermodynamics – how the process of cooling a building makes it more difficult to cool the building. I have not seen this addressed, but it occurred to me the other day while eating a sandwich in the cool interior of a sandwich shop on a 102F Texas afternoon. Mechanically cooling these buildings has to be a major contributor to environmental warming and a battle we can’t win in the long run. I am sure that some thinkers have published thoughts on this, I have just been to busy otherwise to seek them out.

    Thank you for your article and your thoughts.

    Best Regards,
    Ted Spradley
    Houston, TX

    • piedmonthudson Says:

      Ted – – –

      I relate the Second Law as applied to the earth as a system (although not a closed system since energy is incoming and radiated) to an analogue of the saying that “in the long run we are all dead”. Fortunately, the long run could be hundreds of thousands of years, or longer, from the perspective of the Second Law. I think it is far more likley that the long run in the thermodynamic sense will be foreshortened by environmental degradation or interplanetary collision.

      From a philosophical and scientific curiosity point of view, addressing the thermodynamic limits of planet earth is an intriguing subject. From my professional perspective as an investment manager and family financial planner, it takes a back burner to my analysis of what trends are important for my clients over their lifetimes.

      You have raised a very interesting set of questions. I’m sure they will not be erased from my mind – I am just not consciously bring these to the foreground. Who knows what will emerge from such subconscious manipulation. I thank you for taking the time to send your detailed comment.

      You might find some of the things I publish at http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-lounsbury/articles
      and http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-lounsbury/instablog
      interesting, in addition to my efforts at TheStreet.com

      Please make comments any time you feel stimulated to raise issues – I get much benefit from them.

  11. Ted Spradley Says:

    John —

    Ah! Yes, that puts a little perspective on things!

    Thanks for your reply.

    Ted S.

  12. Esq Says:

    Hello:

    If you want the prospectuses from the recently pulled offering, I can e-mail them. There might be some changes, but probably not very much.

    BTW the Trust terminates if the CS index moves more that 33.3% and stays outside that range for three consecutive months.

    Cheers,

    Ed Hynes, CFA; Hello:

    If you want the prospectuses from the recently pulled offering, I can e-mail them. There might be some changes, but probably not very much.

    BTW the Trust terminates if the CS index moves more that 33.3% and stays outside that range for three consecutive months.

    Cheers,

    Ed Hynes, CFA;;

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  14. David Gold Says:

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  15. Stock Market Says:

    Great site, I will be checking back for any new articles and linking back to you from my site.

  16. Ames Tiedeman Says:

    What have you been right about? On May 26, 2008 you said:

    1. Sell Gold
    2. Sell Financials

    You were dead wrong.

    • piedmonthudson Says:

      Ames – – –

      The two trades you refer to are:

      GLL from 6/5/09 to 7/20/09 0.00% return
      SKF from 5/26/09 to 7/15/09 – 5.4% return

      Successful trades:

      QLD from 5/26/09 to 9/11/09 +40.5%
      XLV from 5/26/09 to 9/11/09 +13.3%
      DIG from 10/6/09 to 10/26/09 +10.0%
      LQD from 5/26/09 to 8/6/09 +7.7%
      TLT from 5/26/09 to 9/11/09 +6.3%

      Currently open:

      SLV from 9/25/09 (through 11/20) +15.5%

      All of these and all other contrarian trading ideas are documented regularly in articles at TheStreet.com. You can access them at http://www.thestreet.com/author/1145074/john-lounsbury/all.html

      The risk management processes used to control losses are spelled out in detail in the articles on contrarian portfolios.

      If you have an interest in this process please follow my regularly published articles at TheStreet.com

  17. Ames Tiedeman Says:

    It was May 26, 2009, not 2008!

  18. skelveCew Says:

    Authentic words, some unadulterated words man. Thanks for makin my day!

  19. duncan Says:

    Strangely my browser just can’t show that page properly… It seems that a significant portion of it is not showing and the skin of your article looks very strange. Can you confirm that this post has been tested with Google Chrome?

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  21. John Thmas Says:

    My name is John Thomas. I publish two sites entitiled Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, and Hedge Fund Radio. I have been reading your material for some time and believe my listeners would find you an entertaining and informative guest for Hedge Fund Radio.

    I would like to get your current view on the state of the financial markets. You will also be given an opportunity to promote your own site. The show will have about 38 minites of recording time. I will need to have a brief phone convetsation with you in advance to discuss the topics you would like to cover.

    The Show is downloaded by up to 5,000 listeners a day. The Diary site gets up to 20,000 visitors a day. To see the format and nature of the show please visit me at:

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com

    and

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.biz

    I look forward to hearing from you.

    Regards, John Thomas

    • piedmonthudson Says:

      John – – –

      I apologize for the delay in responding. I have been away much of the past week.

      I would like to participate in a future MHFT Radio broadcast. It would be better for me if we looked out a few weeks in the future because I am really tied up right now trying to get a website developer to finish a job so we can get a new economics blog up and running.

      I don’t really do broad business cycle projections and the like. I like the history of the business cycle but that is probably not a good topic for your show. (One of the best people I know on economic indicators is Steve Hansen. Have you considered him as a guest? He is in the midst of a move back to the U.S. from the Far East, but you could reach him through the Seeking Alpha e-mail function.)

      I do a lot of work on the correlation of employment to the business cycle and that has some characteristics that have some investment implications. I also have spent a lot of time looking at the housing market, which also has implications for investing.

      Another topic that is possible would be the size of the crisis in dollar terms, even when adjusted for inflation, compared to the Great Depresssion. The big difference between then and now is that the holder of the world’s fiat currency is now underwriting the financial structure with “whatever it takes”. The problem with this is that it takes years to unwind massive overleveraging. Ask Japan. The nub of the problem is that many are already talking of an exit strategy. This is like exiting an aircraft (without a parachute) in mid-flight.

      I would have preferred a Swedish solution to the crisis but we have chosen the Japanese way and now have to see it through. However, there are still regulatory and accounting choices that can be made to improve on the Japanese outcome.

      John, the e-mail that I monitor every day, even when travelling, is jlounsbury59@hotmail.com . Please respond there.

  22. Kristi Gartmayer Says:

    John,

    I found your articles/blog by way of your profile on SeekingAlpha.com and loved the focus and content. I’m contacting you to gauge your interest in becoming a “market maven” on InvestorsAlley.com, which could involve contributing content, hosting a guest blog, or providing trading ideas/ watch lists.

    Investors Alley has over 100,000 email subscribers (mostly active investors) that receive our newsletter as we redevelop the website. We launched our online presence in 1998 and have received recognition from The Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, CNN, New York Post, among others.

    I’d like to hear your thoughts. Is there a convenient time that we can discuss this further?

    Kristi Gartmayer
    Investors Alley Corp.

    P 212.566.6100 C 215.805.4476 F 312.276.4060
    245 Park Avenue 24th Floor New York, NY 10167

  23. Denese Says:

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